2010年女单预测（转载）
本来不想转载的，因为内容都大同小异，分析了各人的劣势以及她们面临的机遇。但是看到最后一段我又忍不住转过来。我们不必妄自菲薄嘛，国际无产阶级战士都在默默地支持我们！！！
原文地址：http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=59796
Women's Event- Many medal contenders for the 2010 Olympics
Lambielfanatic's thread about the men inspired me to do one for the women. There are plenty of medal contenders on the Ladies' side as well, with no real clear favorite-
JPN- Mao Asada is working with TT this season. Will the current world champion continue her move forward, away from the pack? Should she work to fix the flutz? Does it matter? What does she need if anything? Miki Ando- Can she stay injury free? Can she beat Mao if she's in good shape? Has she seen her best days already? Yukari Nakano- She seems to be moving up on the JPN front. Could she be the best lady from JPN? Does the wrap matter too much to you? What is her primary weakness if anything?Fumie Suguri- She continues to compete but is she on her way out? Should she retire? Does she have a chance for the team in 2010?
KOR- Yu Na Kimhas been having problems with consistency at the big events. Is she the most talented lady right now? What does she need to do to be the best and win it all?
USA- Mirai Nagasu will be on the Senior Circuit for the first time with some tough GP assignments. What does she need to do to be competitive at the top? Be a medal threat in 2010? What should she expect for herself? Rachael Flatt- Maybe the most consistent American right now but joining the Sr. ranks next season. What are her chances against the top ladies? What are her weaknesses? Caroline Zhang- probably the US lady on the shakiest ground considering her technique and the possibility that she will grow the most. But she finished 4th at the GPF her first yr. with mistakes and all.... and Kimmie Meissner- what will happen with Richard Callaghan? Good chance to regain her form? If so, can she compete at the top? Would she be the best American? Ashley Wagner- Trying to improve by moving to Priscilla Hill. Can she be on the American team in 2010? Would she have the talent to do so? Can she fix the flutz in time? Katrina Hacker- Can she work to gain more technical content to be competitive? It looks like she is...Bebe Liang- Too little too late? Will she ever fulfill her promise at this point?
CAN- On home territory for 2010. Is Joannie Rochette finally making a move to be consistent at the top? Can she do even better?? Will Cynthia Phaneuf come back and does she have the goods to displace Mira Leung as Canada's No. 2 in time for the Olys. But isn't Mira improving, too?
EUR- Carolina Kostner- a top competitor? finally consistent? Does anyone think she has a chance of winning it all? Sarah Meier- is she losing her jumps? Will she be a medal threat by 2010? Should Kiira Korpi- be considered a medal threat at all? Is Laura Lepisto goiing to be the new 'it' girl from Finland? Moving up and firmly ahead of Korpi by 2010? Should we stick a fork in Susanna Poykio? ETA- Annett Dytrt- After a few years, is she finally on the verge of Top 10 material, following in the tradition of Kiehlmann, Szewczenko, Leistner and giving Germany a bona fide top competitor??
RUS- Slute Wasn't there a rumor that she was trying to come back, or being asked to by the Russian Fed? Would she be able to handle the young uns? Any Russian Ladies at all this Oly cycle?
CHN- I honestly thought we were going to see movement from a Chinese lady, based upon results from a couple years ago, but alas....any hope for Yan Liu? or perhaps Xu Binshu to move up at this point in time for the Olympics?
Your comments are well-appreciated! 不知道大家注意没有，10年是98时代彻底结束之后的第一届冬奥会，今年的情形有点像96年，难道明年Yuna夺冠，后年Yuna登顶后退役，Mao继续留下？（勿PIA）
想不到居然还有人知道耿冰娃：
The Chinese ladies are depressed as they have been since Chen Lu retired. I was hoping a couple of seasons ago that Binshu Xu would have a good debut on the senior Grand Prix but that never materialized.
Bingwa Geng may have a chance but will she be age eligible by 2010?
难道冰协要给冰娃的年龄做手脚？
这个人（id叫lambielfanastic）分析得比较全面：
Asada- she showed she is over her growth spurt that looked early in the season as though it might impact her signficantly. Early on without her triple axel, with no triple toe, no triple salchow, and a triple flutz, she looked in serious trouble. However by the GP final LP she had her jumps back in order, including the vaunted triple axel. She finally got the monkey off her back in winning Worlds even without that jump. Right on track for possible Olympic Gold in 2006, however while successfully she is yet to skate her very best in two programs at a World Championships or Olympic competition.
Yu Na Kim- a skater who has absolutely everything to win a World or Olympic title. Her problem is she hasnt been able to show up at a World Championships healthy yet. It seems to be a similar recurring problem too, relating to her back. That is very worrisome and hopefully she can get over that. Best pure jumper in the field easily when healthy.
Carolina Kostner- a definite judges pet. Tons of speed, tons of inconsistency. Her winning the SP over a pretty much clean Mao with a step out of a triple lutz, raised some eyebrows. Her nearly winning the World gold, and holding off Kim for silver, with a LP where she managed about 2 of her jump elements cleanly really set off an outcry from many people. Her PCS are baffling to many, and seem to be a sign of her popularity with the European judges. If she can somehow skate a clean or close to clean program she is liked enough by the judges to potentialy win. Even with mistakes she might be on the podium in Vancouver, if she doesnt allow it to snowball to a disaester.
Nakano- She has come a long way but he very poor form in jumps with that wrapped free leg continues to be a major hinderance to her. This was especialy shown at Worlds where she could not have skated any better, and all her major rivals had several mistakes, and she still finished 4th due to downgraded jumps and unimpressive GOE on her jumps. I almost think it will be very hard for her to ever reach a major podium unless she strips down her jumping technique from scratch and that will be very hard to do at her age. Would have won this years Worlds under 6.0 IMO.
Miki Ando- I really think her best days are behind her. She has the ability, but she seems to be emotionally confused to what she wants, and she seems to be carrying some kind of depression and discouragement about something, whether that be still being overshadowed in popularity by Mao even after her World title, feeling jaded with judging or with the sport in general, her relationship with her coach, who knows. Her performances from the 2007 Worlds would have won this years Worlds as well. I really dont think she can beat Mao, Yu Na, or judges pet Kostner on their best day, but none of them have ever managed their best day at Worlds yet, and Ando showed in 2007 she has. I just dont think with the injuries and the emotional baggage she seems to be carrying around now there is much positive in store for her in the future, and a quiet retirement in the near future wouldnt even surprise me.
Joannie Rochette- She seems to be coming into her own gradually. She showed some improved confidence and consistency this season, especialy at Four Continents and Worlds. Still a world medal was there for the taking this year and her performances were still riddled with tenativeness, the much talked up triple-triple she was going to push herself to try non-existent, and lots of small nagging errors that cost her points and overall impression to the judges. Can she take that next step or is she destined to be second tier forever? I do honestly think she could take the step onto the podium in the next couple years, but whether she actually will or not is another matter.
Kimmie Meissner- she is done. With the up and comers in the U.S, and her PCS returning back to normalcy due to her inconsistency finally frusterating the judges enough to cancel out the reputation advantage of her World title win, I highly doubt she ever makes it to Worlds again. She will always be a World Champion though so good for her.
Caroline Zhang- Has lots of very Sasha-esque qualites to her skating. Wonderful spins and spirals, great flexability, some beautiful positions. However she also has alot of very Sasha-esque shortcomings, edges, speed, basic skating, jump technique. Her first season as a senior was highly anticipated with probably a wide variety of opinons how she would fare. The final verdict is probably mixed. Medals in her GP events and a strong 4th at the GP final. However a dissapointing 4th at the U.S Nationals where she lost to 3 fellow junior aged skaters she had been used to beating most times up until then. A failure to defend her World junior title. Lastly a message from the judges she will receive downgrades on her jumps if she does not fix her technique. Will be in a real battle with Flatt, Nagasu, and maybe an improved Wagner to even make the U.S World team this year, but if she does could be a factor heading into 2009 Worlds and 2010 Olympics.
Rachael Flatt- a very pleasent skater. Very consistent, solid technique, and a pleasing flow and elegance across the ice. Lacks the pizzaz and flair of both Zhang and Nagasu, but in the long run she could end up being the best skater of all. Like Zhang will have her hands full trying to make next years World team, but could establish herself a real contender for the 2010 Olympics if she does. Her Senior GP debut this season so will be looking to make her mark with internationl judges, which Zhang was fairly successful with last year, but the overall field has more depth this year and will be a bigger challenge to do.
Mirai Nagasu- a very talented skater who combines much of the best of Zhang and Flatt.
Very good basic skating, excellent spins, great jumps. Had an exciting moment when she won the U.S National title, followed by a real dissapointment when she finished only 3rd as the favorite at the World juniors. Both events led after the SP but faltered somewhat in the LP, holding on at U.S Nationals, not so at Junior Worlds. Perhaps a sign of the pressure getting to her a bit, needs to be able to rise to the occasion if she finds herself in good position after the SP. Like Flatt will be making her senior debut this year and will be looking to impress the judges and make a name for herself.
Fumie Suguri- she is done. While I feel that way about Meissner I can still understand why she continues, but in Suguri's case I have no clue whatsoever why she is still out there other then she must just really love to skate. Will never make another Japanese World team barring a miracle and Mira Leung probably has a better chance to win a World medal then Fumie has at this point (ok maybe that was a tad cruel, but you get the idea).
The Finnish ladies- all pleasent to watch but none of them a potential medalist IMO. I still enjoy watching all skate and the intermural battle for spots in Finland is always fun to watch.
2nd Canadian lady spot- Mira will receive some major competition from both Phaneuf and Samson in the next couple years I predict. Phaneuf is actually my pick to come out ahead for the 2nd spot for 2009 Worlds. Phaneuf really came a long way in her comeback last year, and it it leaves me optimistic she can progress to regain her #2 status in Canada. Samson showed some untapped potential last year I feel, even though she isnt that young for an up and comer (slightly older then Mira). Mira admirably made some changes in look and packaging last year, but it didnt really amount to much for her in the end with international judges.
Sarah Meier- I like her skating but she has no chance of ever being on a World or Olympic podium IMO. Her scores this year gave an idea that even her good skating doesnt impress the judges enough to put her into a mix in a poorer then usual skated event.
Ashley Wagnar- she really is a very determined skater and that is why I wont write her off, that plus she is almost as young as her rivals in the U.S. She really does need to get more consistent under pressure though, and find something that makes her standout more.
想说说小OO，这位仁兄把OO和Cohen相比，我开始很不舒服，后来觉得OO的问题真的还不少（主观的、客观的都有）。跳跃要解决，基本功要加强，美国女单竞争之激烈超乎我们的想象。OO加油啊！！ 有译文吗？谢谢！
哪位高手帮帮忙 看来亚洲的女选手还是很厉害呀
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