川口&斯米尔诺夫 (13赛季节目曝光)

1. 以下是引用zuqn在2006-11-26 3:31:35的发言：
   
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3. 个人认为这对K/S新组合,在技术上比O/S要好,更稳定和成熟,表演比他们更具内涵和古典气质,典型的俄罗斯风格,裁判会更欣赏.明年欧锦赛可能会拿到第3!!!下赛季可能成为俄罗斯头号选手(P/T退役),在俄罗斯大力扶植下,裁判会很快把他们捧的很高.
   
4. 德国的S/S,俄罗斯的K/S,加拿大本土的M/B和D/D,美国的那个NNN,还有今后不知会冒出哪个选手,中国队在2010年奥运会真是不容乐观!!!

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Don't believe NNN and M/B will be very competitive. NNN's only strength is sbs jumps, their throws and twist are quite awkward and unstable.
M/B has never been consistent. D/D are different story, but the female D was injuried this season, so nobody knows how they'll develop. But based on all Canadian skaters' common habit of not being able to land jumps consistently, I am not too worried about them.
Right now, S/S and K/S will be China's major competitors in the next few years.

我不认为K/S比OS更稳定和成熟，嘿嘿，OS第一年组在一起的时候比KS的技术难度更大，一切还要看，K的年纪过大，10年没他们什么事........至于表演的内涵和古典气质，看看两三年前对奥伯塔斯的评价和期望吧。老实讲K长期在Tamara手下接受训练，25岁了只能到这个程度，我个人认为没有啥可发展性了。一场分站赛不至于激动成这样吧，稳定，应该是指在相当长的时间内稳定，我想至少需要两年的时间来证明。

我对于只把跳跃技术看作花样滑冰技术全部的想法也很厌倦了，基本滑行是非常非常重要的，看不懂不代表不存在。申赵的基本滑行在现役的双人滑运动员里绝对是一流的，PT也相当好，张张的基本滑行就一般，需要下功夫练。

1. 以下是引用风铃在2006-11-26 9:46:40的发言：
   
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3. 我知道现在花样滑冰整体水准低落，但是也不至于觉得KS有古典气质，艺术表现多好吧，就那硬梆梆的手和腿？不能因为她知道把嘴咧开微笑就觉得她比张丹有表现力吧，尤其是滑这个音乐，我为沙皇一大哭。K能不能达到伊奈公子那样的水准，都成问题

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Sorry, I don't have any Chinese input system installed, so please tolerate me for typing English for a while(plus my Ping Ying is really slow).


Regarding K&S, we just have different opinions. I think it's extremely difficult to find an 'artistic' pair with lines and atheletism. Shen & Zhao are exceptional, there's no question about it. Zhang & Zhang will probably never approach shen & Zhao's level. But figure skating is a sport first, if you can't have both, I'd rather have an excellent athletic pair with great consistency. That's also why I see Pang & Tong in danger if they can't fix that damn 3toe. Example, you have team O&S with much better lines and posture than zhang & zhang, but if you just can't stand on your feet, I'm afraid your PCS will only go downhill.


This is why I think K&S have great potential because they do seem to have the right balance. They have the total package and seem to have the consistency(Jury is still out for this, I may be wrong, not sure about their throws...), which I value a great deal in potential medalists. Of course everything is on a relative term, I did not say K&S could become another shen & zhao. Who cares what's going to happen in 10 years. But what happens in the next 2-3 years is important to zhang & zhang and pang & tong.
Regarding basic skating skills, I just found two clips of Patrick Chan's performance at TEB.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKGDJKdQmX4  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wjme9ni1VA  I have to admit this kid(15 years old) does seem to have that 'it' thing, that 'star' quality, No wonder a lot of fans/insiders are gushing over this kid who has not even medaled at Junior world competitions. After watching these two clips, I have to acknowledge he does have excellent basics. The program(choreographed by Lori) is full of intricate footwork which I believe a lot of top senior skaters can not even handle.


But my question mark remains, can this kid jump? That's going to be the biggest hurdle for him. You can see all of his jump landings are not clean. All the triples are tiny. He does not seem to have the height to do the 3a, let alone a quad. But he is still young, that's to his advantage. Go back to my original argument, if he can't master consistent jumps, good basics will lead him nowhere.
The American girl-Alissa who fell four times at 'Cup of Russia' is another excellent example. She has everything except jumps. Result: Disaster.


So if you can't find Shen & zhao, I'd much prefer zhang & zhang to pang & tong.

KS虽然现在是代表俄罗斯出战，但是前景却未必很乐观。K的年龄确实很大了，而且做为一名东亚选手，代表俄罗斯出战，虽然现在是事实，但是能否获得俄罗斯冰协的力捧是个很大的问题。俄罗斯人和美国人不一样，作为骨子里一直认为自己是老大的他们，不太可能容忍一个日本人代表国家对出战。之前TARASOVA已经准备着手培养新生力量了。今年是奥运会后第一个赛季，各个国家都在进行新老交替，俄罗斯也是，现在四个项目中除了冰舞有的一拼以外，其他三个项目都比较困难。但是三年后是什么样还很难说。且不说KS到时候是否能和中加德美的选手比，在俄罗斯国内，能否获得一号甚至二号的位置都很难说。虽然OS现在公认是扶不起的，但也未见得KS就是一定会扶得起的。

另外：希望楼主以后用纯正的中文来发帖子，我想以现在的互联网技术，找个中文输入法不会很难吧？

我知道现在花样滑冰整体水准低落，但是也不至于觉得KS有古典气质，艺术表现多好吧，就那硬梆梆的手和腿？不能因为她知道把嘴咧开微笑就觉得她比张丹有表现力吧，尤其是滑这个音乐，我为沙皇一大哭。K能不能达到伊奈公子那样的水准，都成问题

PT的单跳和连跳确实是问题，不过K/S的前途上也有未知的变数！可以确定的是K/S还是有很大潜力，再过3年K就28岁了，艺术表现上说应该是比较成熟的年龄，而且日本女单的基本技术还是很扎实的！确实是不容忽视！

不过我个人到不把希望寄托在P/T身上，从年龄结构上看，两个人都不小了，而且P的跳跃能力不太强也是事实，不过3TOE应该也不是问题的，毕竟P最近身体状况很差，联跳到是觉得2A+2T是不大够，希望可以升级到3TOE+2TOE，怎么也是个2A+2LOOP吧！应该在其他方面比如步伐和编排上狠下功夫，比如将抛跳都放到后面做，获得额外的加分，同时将表演提高到另一个水平上，或许类似荒川，虽然只有5个TRIPLE，不过也是奥运冠军！这就是老将的资本！

Z/Z的技术选择余地很大，主要是丹MM的表现要提高，但是我始终觉得申的提高与她和赵的关系的紧密有很大关系，外国的解说也总说他们之间有中ROMANTIC QUALITY，也是由内而发的，丹MM学是学不了的！重要的是丹MM要跳出音乐表现的怪圈，多接受一些古典音乐方面的训练，我觉得这是必要的！

1. 以下是引用tobyid在2006-11-26 10:48:18的发言：
   
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3. PT的单跳和连跳确实是问题，不过K/S的前途上也有未知的变数！可以确定的是K/S还是有很大潜力，再过3年K就28岁了，艺术表现上说应该是比较成熟的年龄，而且日本女单的基本技术还是很扎实的！确实是不容忽视！
   
4. 不过我个人到不把希望寄托在P/T身上，从年龄结构上看，两个人都不小了，而且P的跳跃能力不太强也是事实，不过3TOE应该也不是问题的，毕竟P最近身体状况很差，联跳到是觉得2A+2T是不大够，希望可以升级到3TOE+2TOE，怎么也是个2A+2LOOP吧！应该在其他方面比如步伐和编排上狠下功夫，比如将抛跳都放到后面做，获得额外的加分，同时将表演提高到另一个水平上，或许类似荒川，虽然只有5个TRIPLE，不过也是奥运冠军！这就是老将的资本！
   
5. Z/Z的技术选择余地很大，主要是丹MM的表现要提高，但是我始终觉得申的提高与她和赵的关系的紧密有很大关系，外国的解说也总说他们之间有中ROMANTIC QUALITY，也是由内而发的，丹MM学是学不了的！重要的是丹MM要跳出音乐表现的怪圈，多接受一些古典音乐方面的训练，我觉得这是必要的！

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Pang's 3toe is a big problem. I just went to ISU site and checked the protocols of recent competitions. Pang's 3toe was only ratified ONCE at 2006 world championships.
Without a true 3toe, they are in big trouble, here is why. (I exclude shen & zhao, Pet & T since they will likely retire soon; also zhang & zhang since they have the most difficult sbs jumps. Even they can't get 2a+3toe consistent, they have 3s as a back up, so no problem for them).
S&S's jump layout:
3Toe + 3Toe SEQ, 2A (long)
3Toe(short)
The new pair K&S's jump layout(I read that they finished those sbs jumps with no problem in both long and short):
3Toe + 3Toe SEQ, 2A(long)
3Toe(short)
So if Pang can not get her 3toe back, they will likely lose three 3toes to those two top teams. Get your calculator, you will see how many points they have to make up. Pang & Tong will still have advantage over those second tier pairs such as O&S, M&B since their sbs and throws are not consistent either, perhaps even worse. But I'm really worried about S&S and K&S. There's no big gap in all other elements, sbs jumps will be deciding factor for Pang & Tong.

觉得问题没楼上的说这么严重，如果PT吧抛跳放到后半段做，依靠他们的稳定性是会有GOE和规则加分的，估计怎么也会多个3分左右吧！再说3 TIWST现在P的起跳方式没变，如果改成前外也会有加分！3T+3T seq=6.8, 2A=3.3;加一起就10。1；PT 3T=4 2A+2T=4。6分，加一起8。6分，现在看PT还是有技术优势的，不过没ZZ明显而已！

如果P的体力能好些，把2A+2T放到后面做，获得点加分，那跳跃差距就更小啦！估计楼上的可能忘了SEQ是要加一起乘0。8的，呵呵！

K/S的抛跳还是不太行，短节目女的有HANG ON的嫌疑，长节目有小的错误，不觉得他们有能力把抛跳都放到后面做！

不过PT要加油才是，如果K/S有两种3周，P/T才是真的有了大麻烦的！

楼主如果在北美，可以理解你那种那着计算器通过过去推算未来的方法，不过用句土话，计划没有变化快，事在人为！

我觉得P/T奥运最大的问题不是跳跃被降组的问题，而是没有意识自己的跳跃会被降组，如果他们用2A+2T，2A的组合=4。6+3。3=7。9；比2T+1T，2T=3分左右吧！

ANYWAY，编排还是最重要，清楚规则，清楚意识到合适要拼，何时要保！

1. 以下是引用风铃在2006-11-26 11:51:49的发言：
   
2. 花样滑冰是一项运动没错，但是并不代表着只有跳跃是技术，其他不是，即使KS的3T每次成功，就他们那样的燕式抛跳和旋转，也称不上大师级的。何况要拿他们来跟中国三对选手比，我觉得没啥可比性，两对世界冠军就不必跟他们比了，根本不是同一量级的，没拿世界冠军的张张，要说稳定，比他们强得多，艺术表现大家一样，哈哈哈哈，阿三就不要说阿四了。

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Well different opinions. We can always agree to disagree. Anyway K&S won't be able to compete anytime soon, so we'll still have a couple of months to sort this mess out. Here's my prediction for 2007 worlds: 1. zhang & zhang 2. shen & zhao 3. s & s 4/5: pang & tong 4/5: Pet/T. By the way, did you watch the clips I just recommended, how do you feel about this kid Patrick Chan?

这次的COC庞清的跳跃被降的比较厉害。但我觉得他们的计划是合理的。2A连2A，3T，分值和PV/TV一样，9.28，至于完成，我觉得他们既然在赛前做这样的编排，训练中（康复时)的成功率肯定错不了！

PT这赛季正常训练的时间并不多，COC作不得准，甚至世锦赛能完成什么样也得看接下来P的身体能不能恢复。

另外，国内下载国外的视频除了YSI之外，速度都不行，我没法下载。

现在男单里我最喜欢的滑行是JEFF，不知道你看过他现场比赛没有，滑行技术好不好，差距真的很明显。

1. 以下是引用风铃在2006-11-26 12:22:46的发言：
   
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3. PT这赛季正常训练的时间并不多，COC作不得准，甚至世锦赛能完成什么样也得看接下来P的身体能不能恢复。
   
4. 另外，国内下载国外的视频除了YSI之外，速度都不行，我没法下载。现在男单里我最喜欢的滑行是JEFF，不知道你看过他现场比赛没有，滑行技术好不好，差距真的很明显。

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You don't need to download, it's on youtube. lingyun1999 just added the new feature so we can all watch videos instantly without downloading. Patrick Chan's videos on under this thread. http://www.chinaice.org/2635/dispbbs.asp?boardID=307&ID=6400&page=1 I also created a new thread for Binshu Xu and Caroline Zhang to display all the videos of them on youtube. You'll probably like Patrick Chan, his style is very similar to Buttle's. I don't really like Buttle, still the same thing, he can't jump. I hate judges to award skaters with less difficult jumps by jacking up PCS. It is not fair. I am still relatively new to figure skating, but I did watch live both Mao Asada and Yu Na Kim at 2005 Jr. world championships just by chance. I didn't even realize Binshu xu at that time and was still in love with Mira Leung, the most ridiculed skater on skating forums.

1. 以下是引用warrior在2006-11-26 12:47:02的发言：
   
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6. You'll probably like Patrick Chan, his style is very similar to Buttle's. I don't really like Buttle, still the same thing, he can't jump. I hate judges to award skaters with less difficult jumps by jacking up PCS. It is not fair.

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在COP下技术低，PCS高没什么不公平的~~PCS里本来就不包括技术分，所以如果你的节目编排好，衔接好，滑行技术和表现力好，那PCS高无可厚非，如果仅仅是因为跳跃难道不高而拖累了节目分，那才叫不公平呢~~
而且JEFF的技术分其实不低，他除了不能完成四周以外，在旋转，步法上难度都跟高~~
PS：那个加国的CHAN怎么能跟JEFF比呢？！两个人的风格也差十万八千里呢~~

我知道不用下载，但是国内在线观看 youtube非常卡，就象看连环画一样，并且我现在还在上传视频，更没有带宽可以看这个了。

JEFF比任何人都应该拿这个分数的PCS,PCS不是用来再为跳跃打一次分的，他的基本技术，他的步法进入，他的连接，他的节目编排，他对音乐的理解和表达，就应该拿这样的分数，不应该拿PCS高分的是普鲁申科。

我想你如果不懂的话，需要多看。