golden skate上一篇预测全美的文章
http://goldenskate.com/articles/2006/011607.shtml
MEN
For all of the controversy surrounding Johnny Weir in general, there has been surprisingly little at Nationals. Weir has walked away with the national title for three consecutive years. In Spokane, he competes for a fourth consecutive title, something that has not been done since Brian Boitano. Despite his successes at the national level, Weir has had little success at the world level, dropping in the world standings in every year with odd falls, poorly planned programs, and no quadruple jump. In Spokane, Weir battles not only for his title, but also to prove that time has not passed him by. Two years ago, it was nearly inconceivable that Weir would not be on the podium with perfect programs. Now, with the likes of Daisuke Takashi and Nobunari Oda of Japan, France's Brian Joubert, and countryman Evan Lysacek, it's questionable whether Weir could medal at the world level even with his very best skate.
Lysacek, the two-time and reigning world bronze medalist, has defeated Weir internationally at the past two World Championships and the Olympics. After winning Cup of China, Lysacek would have been the favorite to win the National title except for a freak fall in practice at the Grand Prix Final that kept him off the ice entirely for two weeks. Lysacek's readiness is questionable, and like Weir, he has problems delivering the quadruple jump. However, Lysacek's excellent program planning and delivery (even with mistakes) is an inherent advantage that could push him to the top in a contest where both he and Weir make mistakes.
As in the ladies event, the third men's world team berth is a crap-shoot due to the retirements of veterans Matt Savoie, Michael Weiss, and Tim Goebel. Unlike the ladies, the heirs apparent have been skating fairly well this season. Scott Smith, fourth at Cup of China, is considered the favorite provided he can land his triple axels and make a creditable attempt at the quadruple salchow.
Smith is not the only man with momentum, however. Training mate Stephen Carriere, reigning U.S. junior champ, won the Junior Grand Prix Final and both of his JGP events this season. Though no U.S. junior champion has finished in the top five in his first appearance in seniors for at least fifteen years, Carriere could buck that trend if he skates well.
Four men from the highly competitive Midwestern sectional - Jeremy Abbott, Parker Pennington, Ryan Bradley, and Braden Overett - all have the talent and technical goods to challenge as well. Veteran Derrick Delmore, who has competed at the senior level since 1996, also has an outside shot at a medal in what could be his final competitive skate.
预测
1. Lysacek 2. Weir 3. Smith
“尽管在国内比赛中屡屡获胜,但他在国际大赛中还一无所获。匪夷所思的摔倒,节目编排的不合理,四周的缺乏......都使得他的世锦赛排名年年看跌。
两年前,如果Weir表现完美,却没能登上世界大赛领奖台,那是难以想象的。而现在,与之同场竞技的有日本的织田、高桥,法国的Joubert,同胞Lysacek。即便他表现完美,也未必能登上世锦赛领奖台。
Lysacek,在两届世锦赛和冬奥会中均打败Weir。在获得本赛季中国杯冠军后,他已成为今年全美的夺标大热门。尽管他因伤退出GPF,尽管他和Weir一样,也不能很好地完成四周,但他的节目安排十分合理,且一向发挥稳定。即便在比赛中出现失误,这仍不会阻碍他登顶。
由于Savoie,Weiss,Goebel的退役,Scott Smith很有可能获得今年比赛的第三名。”
看来文章的作者很不看好Weir,但文章写得很客观。哎,看来这次全美注定是一场噩梦......
“两年前,如果Weir表现完美,却没能登上世界大赛领奖台,那是难以想象的。而现在,与之同场竞技的有日本的织田、高桥,法国的Joubert,同胞Lysacek。即便他表现完美,也未必能登上世锦赛领奖台。”
其实作者这 |